Lecture 1
Development market after preferential mortgage: where does the demand for real estate
The Russian development market has entered a phase where the old sales mechanics no longer work automatically. The city apartment remains a clear product, but expensive mortgages, cautious buyers, accumulation of unsold housing and increased competition force the developer to look for new formats and new growth territories.
Against this background, resort real estate is perceived no longer as a niche experiment, but as a separate investment class: a unit, glamping, hotel room or a share in a working project are sold not only as square meters, but as a combination of income, personal use, the natural environment and the prospect of growth in the value of the territory.
Key findings
- The city apartment is no longer a model of investment, and the buyer compares it not only with other housing, but also with deposits, bonds, apart-formats and resort assets.
- The problem with the developer today is not in the construction, but in the sale, and with the same amount of competence, the old product has become slower to sell and more dependent on the rate, solvency and quality of packaging.
- The investor has begun to calculate not only the price increase of the property, but also the real return after downtime, repairs, taxes and management, so interest is shifting towards assets that combine use and income.
- Remote and hybrid work are changing the geography of demand, and people are increasingly looking for a second place to live, to work, to recover, and to own an asset.
- Demographic constraints and automation weaken the idea of endless growth of the same urban housing, and the developer has to fight not for an abstract mass market, but for the specific motivations of the buyer.
- Wellness, medical and recreational tourism are becoming part of the larger economy, opening up demand for properties built into the health, recreation and long stay scenario.
- A resort product has to be an ecosystem, and if a developer creates not just a placement, but an environment with management, services, routes, medical or wellness core, they get a stronger sales and download model.
- Altai is suitable for this model due to the natural environment, the emotional value of the territory and the ability to build not individual tourist centers, but resort towns of a new type.
- Resort development does not abolish urban development, but becomes the second line of growth, and for the market it is a way to get away from dependence only on mortgages and urban demand.
- The new formula for the investor is: own a unit or a share in the resort ecosystem, use the asset yourself, transfer it to management and participate in the growth of the value of the territory.
- For Altai, the key point is to develop managed resort areas, where land, service, medicine, routes, guest flow and investment logic are connected.
- The main result of the lecture: the next growth market for the developer may not be in the new urban quarter, but in the creation of resort ecosystems, where real estate becomes part of the economy of health, recreation and remote work.